Thomas P.M. Barnett on Iran uprising
He has predicted such an outcome by 2010 in previous books.
Quotes from Barnett:
"I see the unrest to date and welcome it, but I do not share this mushrooming of enthusiasm for, and expectation of, a bottom-up revolution in Iran.
This may well be the start, but I suspect we're a long ways from a successful peak. I just don't see that correlation of forces yet.
Apologies, but I have simply been unable to track this much (or in a timely fashion from Shanghai, where I have been maximally engaged).
Thus we watch for the surge to develop some serious legs, and that's where I'm pessimistic.
(This maybe growing legs, see my post:G )
http://warintel.blogspot.com/2009/06/iran-paradigm-intel-061609.html
Hmmm.
Then I peruse the Wikipedia entry on the election and I get more upbeat.
Arguing against the Tehran-is-important-but-unrepresentative-of-Iran argument is the larger youth-skewed demographic reality.
In short, the optimist argues that this contested election proves how doomed theocracy is in Iran, the question being only timing."
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Gerald
Anthropologist
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Originally published at https://warintel.blogspot.com/2009/06/thomas-pm-barnett-on-iran-uprising.html on June 17, 2009.