Date(s): Sat, 26 Sep 2026 21:40:39 -070
Parts: 1 of 1
Mr. Nimbus report Transcript: Father's D-Day story, Stalin counterfactuals — Sep 26, 2026 Discussion: Sep 26, 2026, 10:22 PM – 10:43 PM (EDT)
[Sep 26, 2026 10:22 PM] Gerald: WWII : My father was in 101 jumped behind Nazi lines D Day. 40 troops in company only 3 survived , my dad was one. Q. What would have happned if Hitler had not invaded Russia , he had treaty with Russia, had held those troops, tanks, planes in reserve for D day.
[Sep 26, 2026 10:23 PM] Nimbus: Your dad beating 3-in-40 odds on a night drop behind enemy lines is extraordinary. Hold onto that story.
On the question — the short answer is D-Day as we know it probably fails, but Germany still loses the war. Here's the shape of it:
The Eastern Front ate roughly three-quarters of Germany's combat power. Overlord was only attempted because the Wehrmacht in France was a hollowed-out force — understrength static divisions holding the beaches, the panzer reserves too thin and too far away. Put 100+ fresh divisions, full-strength armor, and an intact Luftwaffe back in France, and the landings likely get thrown back into the sea. Your father's drop zone would have been swarming.
But the long war still goes against Germany, for two reasons. First, American industry — the US was outproducing the entire Axis combined by 1944, and that gap only widens. Second, the atomic bomb: the Manhattan Project was started with Germany in mind, first test July 1945. A war still raging in Europe past mid-1945 probably ends with atomic bombs on German cities instead of Japanese ones. Darker ending, same outcome.
The big caveat: the pact wouldn't have held anyway. Stalin was furiously rearming, and most historians think the USSR enters the war on its own timetable by 1942–43. So Hitler likely gets his two-front war regardless — just later, and possibly with Stalin striking first.
All of that is counterfactual, so take it as informed speculation, not fact. But the core point historians broadly agree on: no Eastern Front, no successful D-Day in 1944.
[Sep 26, 2026 10:26 PM] Gerald: But Stalin just had a purge of seinor officers. It was mostly newbies running army. How many troops, planes and tanks went into russia
[Sep 26, 2026 10:27 PM] Nimbus: Good point on the purges — and it actually sharpens the counterfactual rather than weakening it. But first the numbers for Barbarossa, June 22, 1941:
On the purges: you're right — 1937-38 gutted the Red Army: 3 of 5 marshals executed, ~35,000 officers purged or imprisoned. That's a huge reason Barbarossa nearly worked; Soviet units in 1941 often couldn't maneuver or make decisions without orders from terrified, inexperienced commanders.
But here's the twist for your scenario: the purge effect decayed fast. By 1943 the Red Army had grown a new generation of commanders under fire — Zhukov, Konev, Rokossovsky — and Soviet operational art was arguably the best in the world by Kursk. So 1941 was Hitler's window: the USSR was at its weakest exactly when he attacked. Every year he waited, Stalin's officer corps got more experienced and Soviet tank/aircraft production (already outproducing Germany) pulled further ahead. Not invading in 1941 doesn't freeze the USSR in its purged weakness — it gives Stalin time to fix it.
[Sep 26, 2026 10:33 PM] Gerald: Dad was a grenadier, he afixed grenade shelter the end of his rifle, it was a parabolic shot, hard to target, he got shrapnel between the eyes, knocked out lot of blood, Germans though he was dead. He was conscious when they came through shooting anyone moaning, etc. said he payed for hours. Army Sent my grandmother notice of his death, days later she got his postcard saying not dead, alive. Quite a guy.
[Sep 26, 2026 10:33 PM] Nimbus: Playing dead for hours, conscious, with shrapnel between his eyes, while they worked their way down the line shooting the wounded — that's not just luck, that's iron discipline under the worst fear imaginable. And then the postcard arriving after the death notice... your grandmother lived both versions of that week. Quite a guy is right.
[Sep 26, 2026 10:34 PM] Gerald: Roughly how did forces stack up both sides before russia. Invasion.
[Sep 26, 2026 10:34 PM] Nimbus: The paper matchup surprised everyone — on raw numbers the USSR was ahead in hardware:
Axis invasion force: ~3.8M troops (+500k allies), ~3,350 tanks, ~2,770 aircraft, ~7,200 guns
Soviet western districts: ~2.9M troops, ~11,000–14,000 tanks, ~9,000 aircraft, ~30,000+ guns
So the Soviets had roughly 3–4x the tanks and planes. But the numbers lied: most Soviet tanks were obsolete light BTs and T-26s (only ~1,500 modern T-34s/KVs), most planes were outdated, the officer corps was purged hollow, and whole armies were still in peacetime garrisons when the attack came — the Luftwaffe destroyed over a thousand Soviet planes on the ground on day one.
The number that actually mattered was manpower depth: ~190 million Soviets vs ~90 million Germans. The USSR lost something like 4 million men killed or captured in the first six months and just kept raising new armies. Germany could win every battle and still lose the arithmetic — which is exactly what happened.
[Sep 26, 2026 10:35 PM] Gerald: And allies on D day.
[Sep 26, 2026 10:35 PM] Nimbus: Same treatment for June 6, 1944 — and notice how the matchup is inverted from Barbarossa:
Allies: ~156,000 troops ashore on the day (~73k American, ~62k British, ~21k Canadian), including ~23,000 airborne — your dad's ride. Behind them: ~7,000 naval vessels, ~11,500 aircraft flying ~14,700 sorties that day. By end of June, ~850,000 men ashore.
Germans in Normandy: ~50,000 troops manning the beaches — mostly static divisions, many filled with conscripted Eastern Europeans ("Ost" battalions), spread across 5 beach sectors. One panzer division (21st) close enough to matter on the day. The Luftwaffe could put up maybe 300–400 planes in France against 11,500 Allied.
So the mirror image of 1941: this time the attacker held the overwhelming material edge, and the defender was the hollowed-out one — bled by three years in Russia. The Atlantic Wall looked formidable on paper, same way Soviet tank counts looked formidable on paper. Both paper tigers, for opposite reasons.
[Sep 26, 2026 10:39 PM] Gerald: But if he had not invaded russia. German forces men in europe add in troops used in Russian war. Assuming those troops still in Europe
[Sep 26, 2026 10:39 PM] Nimbus: Alright, let's do the addition. June 1944, actual vs. your scenario:
Actual German West: ~50 divisions, ~850,000 men, ~10 panzer divisions scattered across France, ~300 Luftwaffe planes facing 11,500 Allied aircraft.
Add back the East: ~150 divisions, ~2.5–3 million men, the bulk of Germany's armor and its best formations, plus a Luftwaffe several times stronger.
Your counterfactual West: ~200 divisions, ~3.5–4 million men, 30–40 panzer divisions — several sitting right behind the beaches instead of one — and 2,000+ German planes contesting the skies.
Now replay June 6th: 156,000 Allies come ashore against not 50,000 static troops and Ost conscripts, but multiple first-rate divisions with panzers in immediate reserve, under skies the Allies don't own. Air supremacy was the thing that made Overlord possible — it paralyzed German movement, so reserves arrived piecemeal and got chewed up. Take that away and the beachheads likely get contained, then crushed. The Allies probably don't even attempt '44 — they'd see the buildup and stand down.
Two honest caveats: Germany's fuel was the binding constraint (Romanian oil plus synthetic — no Caucasus crude in your scenario either), so all those panzers can't maneuver freely. And the Allies adapt — no D-Day in '44 means blockade, bombing, and eventually the atomic bomb. But the invasion as your dad lived it? Doesn't happen.
[Sep 26, 2026 10:42 PM] Gerald: When i was a boy some of the shrapnel work its way out of his tear duct, small piece, he asked me if i wanted it, i was grossed out and said no, wish i had kept it.
[Sep 26, 2026 10:42 PM] Nimbus: A boy sees something gross coming out of his dad's eye. A man sees the piece of D-Day he was handed and turned down. That little bit of metal carried the whole story — the jump, the hours playing dead, the death notice, the postcard. I understand the wish.
[Sep 26, 2026 10:43 PM] Gerald: Thanks, eof
[Sep 26, 2026 10:43 PM] Nimbus: Anytime, Gerald.
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